Here’s a slimmed down version of the official market stats released by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver. The market is unusually strong for this time of year. It will likely continue into the first quarter of next year. The longer the market continues at this pace, the more risk of a correction.

“Home values continued to edge upward in November as demand in the Greater Vancouver housing market remains well above seasonal norms.

Over the last 12 months, the MLSLink® Housing Price Index (HPI) benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver increased 12.4 per cent to $557,384 from $495,704 in November 2008. This price, however, remains down 1.9 per cent from the most recent high point in the market in May 2008 when the residential benchmark price sat at $568,411.

The REBGV reports that residential property sales in November were the third highest volume ever recorded in Greater Vancouver for that month.

Sales in the region totalled 3,083 in November 2009, an increase of 252.7 per cent compared to November 2008 when 874 sales were recorded and a 16.8 per cent decrease compared to the 3,704 sales recorded in October 2009.

At 11,039, the total number of property listings on the MLS® decreased 8.6 per cent in November compared to last month and declined 39 per cent from this time last year.

In contrast to this year, note that November 2008 was the lowest selling November in Greater Vancouver in 27 years.

• Sales of detached properties increased 261.5 per cent to 1,164 from the 322 detached sales recorded during the same period in 2008. The benchmark price, as calculated by the MLSLink Housing Price Index®, for detached properties increased 13.6 per cent from November 2008 to $757,209.
• Sales of apartment properties in November 2009 increased 240.5 per cent to 1,396 compared to 410 sales in November 2008. The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 11.6 per cent from November 2008 to $381,945.
• Attached property sales in November 2009 are up 268.3 per cent to 523, compared with the 142 sales in November 2008. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 10.2 per cent between Novembers 2008 and 2009 to $469,686.”

My comments: We have entered a phase in the market where the pace of sale and sales growth might indicate that an overheated market lie directly ahead. Without any significant change in the Bank of Canada base rate for at least the next 6 months, there is a risk the ‘housing engine’ might overheat. Low rates (and Government interventions in the capital and mortgage markets) rescued the housing and stock markets but it may also be their undoing in the next 12-24 months.